Bitcoin (BTC) is back in the news as the world’s largest and most important cryptocurrency. After a strong run that brought it close to all-time highs, experienced Bitcoin traders are warning of a larger correction as the asset approaches liquidity zones below the $100,000 mark. This prediction is sparking considerable discussion in the cryptocurrency markets, which is reigniting interest in how technical indicators, macroeconomic factors, and market sentiment interact.
We examine the various reasons traders believe the price of Bitcoin will decline, analyze signals from key trading tools such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Fibonacci retracements, and provide a comprehensive narrative that encompasses historical parallels, current events, and factors like ETF flows and Federal Reserve policy. This article also discusses various user intents, ranging from individuals seeking technical information to those interested in learning more about the market as a whole.
Bitcoin’s recent rise and the warning sign
Bitcoin broke through the $70,000 mark in early 2025 after a long period of sideways consolidation and accumulation. This was due to a mix of institutional buying, more mainstream use, and the approval of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs. Companies like BlackRock and Fidelity have played a significant role in this rise, investing substantial amounts of money in the crypto market through authorized investment vehicles.
However, technical analysts are now pointing to a change in momentum. The weekly RSI for BTC/USD, based on data from TradingView, indicates that. The asset is overbought, suggesting it may be poised for a reversal. Michael van de Poppe and Benjamin Cowen, two well-known crypto specialists, are saying that there may be support zones much lower than the six-figure level. These areas, which range between $60,000 and $75,000, have numerous liquidity clusters, which may draw prices back down.
Liquidity Triggers and Bitcoin Price Volatility
In cryptocurrency trading, liquidity refers to the ease with which an asset can be bought or sold without significant price volatility. Stop-loss orders, pending buy orders, and leveraged positions are standard in liquidity pools below $100,000. When Bitcoin’s price approaches these areas, it often becomes highly volatile due to automatic liquidations and cascading sell-offs.
Glassnode, a leading blockchain analytics company, has observed increased activity on the blockchain at these low liquidity levels. Whale wallet movements, which often precede significant market shifts, indicate signals of money being transferred to exchanges. The possibility to protect crucial levels or exit holdings.
Traders who utilize tools like bookmap heatmaps and order flow analytics can identify a significant number of resting orders below $100,000, particularly between $92,000 and $95,000. This supports the idea that Bitcoin could test these levels in what traders call a “healthy correction,” a short-term price drop that is necessary for long-term price stability.
Similarities in the past and behavior after the halving
Bitcoin’s current price path has happened before. In the past, after halvings in 2013, 2017, and 2021, the price has increased in a parabolic manner, then declined severely, or remained stable for a while. The halving in 2024 cut block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This made people feel good about the market, but it also set the stage for speculation.
In the months following each halving, the BTC price tends to undergo a “blow-off top” period. When the market gets too hot, corrections of 20% to 40% are normal. If Bitcoin continues on its current trajectory, a drop to approximately $75,000 wouldn’t be unexpected. This could be a favorable opportunity for long-term investors to re-enter the market.
The Federal Reserve and the economy as a whole
Bitcoin’s current market sentiment is also being affected by macroeconomic issues, not just technical ones. Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, has reiterated that the central bank will base its decisions on evidence when it comes to interest rates, despite high inflation levels. When monetary circumstances are tighter, institutional investors usually become less willing to take risks. This might slow down the flow of money into cryptocurrencies.
The strength of the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has also come back, which is putting more pressure on BTC prices. When the dollar is strong, risk assets, such as cryptocurrency, tend to perform worse. Geopolitical pressures, such as the persistent volatility in the Middle East and the lack of clear rules in the U.S. about crypto exchanges, are also making things riskier.
Social Metrics and Trader Sentiment
Platforms for sentiment analysis, such as Santiment and LunarCrush, show that price action and trader confidence are not in sync. Bitcoin-related content is no longer as popular on social media sites like Twitter and Reddit as it once was, which could indicate that retail interest is waning. At the same time, searches for terms like “Bitcoin price prediction” and “will Bitcoin crash?” have increased, indicating that people are becoming more concerned.
The Fear and Greed Index is shifting away from severe greed and into the neutral or fear zone. This supports the view that a correction may not only be coming but also needed to bring the market back into equilibrium.
ETF Flows and How Institutions Act
Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin ETFs, particularly the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, have seen fluctuations in the amount of money flowing in. Although net flows remain positive this year, recent slowdowns indicate that institutions are taking profits. This doesn’t mean the market is going down, but it does show that the people who started the rally are being careful.
As institutional interest wanes slightly, retail investors, who are typically the last to join in during bull runs, may be more susceptible to price swings. So, a correction could be a way for the market to clean itself out by eliminating excessive speculation, making way for a more stable advance.
Long-Term View: In the face of short-term uncertainty
Although many people have said that Bitcoin would experience a drop, its long-term fundamentals remain strong. The fact that there will only ever be 21 million coins, that they are becoming increasingly integrated into the global financial system, and that more and more companies are using them (as seen by MicroStrategy’s continuous purchases) all point to a strong, positive basis.
Still, traders and investors who want to get in on the action need to know how market corrections work. You can make better decisions by monitoring ETF flows, whale behavior, and retests of support zones.
